Governments of the world’s leading economies have more than $7.6 trillion of debt maturing this year, with most facing a rise in borrowing costs.
Led by Japan’s $3 trillion and the US’s $2.8 trillion, the amount coming due for the Group of Seven nations and Brazil, Russia, India and China is up from $7.4 trillion at this time last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ten-year bond yields will be higher by year-end for at least seven of the countries, forecasts show.
Investors may demand higher compensation to lend to countries that struggle to finance increasing debt burdens as the global economy slows, surveys show. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for growth this year to four per cent from a prior estimate of 4.5 per cent as Europe’s debt crisis spreads, the US struggles to reduce a budget deficit exceeding $1 trillion and China’s property market cools.
“The weight of supply may be a concern,” Stuart Thomson, a money manager in Glasgow at Ignis Asset Management Ltd, which oversees $121 billion, said in a December 28 telephone interview. “Rather than the start of the year being the problem, it’s the middle part of the year that becomes the problem. That’s when we see the slowdown in the global economy having its biggest impact.”
Competition for buyers
The amount needing to be refinanced rises to more than $8 trillion when interest payments are included. Coming after a year in which Standard & Poor’s cut the US’s rating to AA+ from AAA and put 15 European nations on notice for possible downgrades, the competition to find buyers is heating up.
“It is a big number and obviously because many governments are still in a deficit situation the debt continues to accumulate and that’s one of the biggest problems,” Elwin de Groot, an economist at Rabobank Nederland in Utrecht, Netherlands, part of the world’s biggest agricultural lender, said in an interview on December 27.
While most of the world’s biggest debtors had little trouble financing their debt load in 2011, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Sovereign Broad Market Plus Index gaining 6.1 per cent, the most since 2008, that may change.
Italy auctioned 7 billion euros ($9.1 billion) of debt on December 29, less than the 8.5 billion euros targeted. With an economy sinking into its fourth recession since 2001, Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government must refinance about $428 billion of securities coming due this year, the third-most, with another $70 billion in interest payments, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Rising costs
Borrowing costs for G7 nations will rise as much as 39 per cent in 2011, based on forecasts of 10-year government bond yields by economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg in separate surveys. China’s 10-year yields may remain little changed, while India’s are projected to fall to 8.02 per cent from about 8.39 per cent. The survey doesn’t include estimates for Russia and Brazil.
After Italy, France has the most amount of debt coming due, at $367 billion, followed by Germany at $285 billion. Canada has $221 billion, while Brazil has $169 billion, the U.K. has $165 billion, China has $121 billion and India $57 billion. Russia has the least maturing, or $13 billion. CARRYING THE BURDEN
Bond and bill redemptions and interestpayments in 2012 for G7 countries, Brazil, China, India and Russia
Country 2012 bond, bill redemptions- Interestpayments
Japan 3,000 117
United States 2,783 212
Italy 428 72
France 367 54
Germany 285 45
Canada 221 14
Brazil 169 31
United Kingdom 165 67
China 121 41
India 57 39
Russia 13 9
Figures in US$ billion Source: Bloomberg
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