Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Bundestag OKs latest Greek debt deal.

Germany's Bundestag has approved by 473-100 the latest Greek debt deal, which the Troika agreed to earlier this week. The vote is a further step towards the country receiving €44B in bailout cash and staving off eurogeddon, for now. The overwhelming approval comes despite the lack of details provided and concerns that eurozone countries will be forced to take losses on their Greek debt.

Japanese industrial output unexpectedly rises.

Japanese industrial production figures for October have provided a bit of unexpected cheer, rising a monthly 1.8% vs consensus of -2%. On year, output fell 4.3%, but that still wasn't as bad as the -8% that was forecast. Meanwhile, unemployment came in an expected 4.2%, although Japan remains in deflation, with core CPI flat on year and non-core inflation down 0.4%.

Detroit staring at bankruptcy.

With 2-3 weeks to receive $30M of state aid from Michigan in order not to run out of cash, Detroit is again teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. The aid is contingent on the city implementing the provisions of a deal in April, when Michigan agreed to provide $137M, but those measures haven't been enacted. Financial mismanagement, political corruption, and a massive population hemorrhage are among the causes of Detroit's woe.

Eurozone unemployment keeps marching higher.

Eurozone unemployment climbed to a fresh record high of 11.7% in October from 11.6% in September. Another 173,000 people are without a job, taking the total to 18.7M. The north-south divide remains as stark as ever, with Austria's jobless rate 4.3% while Spain's is 26.2%. "It's a measure of just how bad things have got in the eurozone that market sentiment is still irrationally upbeat," says forex specialist Jason Conibear.

The country's IPO (Initial Public Offering) market is about to heat up soon.

India's largest telecom operator, Bharti Airtel, has announced the IPO for its tower arm Bharti Infratel. Expected to amount to Rs 40 bn, the issue is the largest to hit the markets in two years. But the question to ask is why does Bharti need to come out with an IPO at this time? The reason is simple. The incumbent operator needs funds for expanding and updating its network. The next question would be why did it not need funds before? Why now? The answer to this one is the government .

The government's policies on spectrum fee, spectrum charges, spectrum auction have all been targeted at one thing. To raise more money for the government itself. As a result the operator has had to resort to listing its tower arm for much needed funds. The parent company's funds would be used to pay the one time spectrum fees and fund the spectrum re-farming charges and auction money. But would the listing really help the operator? It is unlikely to help it in any way except for providing momentary relief. At least for a while it need not try and dig up more money for network expansion. The long term prospects of the company are still very much dependant on the government's policies. If the government continues with its humongous expectations of funds from the telecom sector, the need for funds by the operators would just keep growing. However if the government has learnt a lesson from the flop show of its recently held auction, then the telecom operators may see their fortunes reviving. Either ways it's not the listing that will decide the company's fortunes. But the government will.
02:40
 
The adoption of Basle II norms required banks globally to recapitalize their balance sheets. This saw most banks approaching capital markets to raise Tier I and Tier II capital. Indian banks, both from the PSU and private sector have over the years equipped their capital adequacy ratios (CARs) to meet the Basel II threshold. As a result, most banks saw an improvement in CAR over the past 5 years. As data from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Trends and Progress in Banking (2012) shows, banks globally, including those in the US and Europe, have CAR in excess of 12% in 2012.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Euro Eases Up Against The Dollar, Fiscal Policy Now Main Focus For The US

The Euro eased up against the US Dollar during early trading on Thursday, but losses were limited after statements from US policy makers re-ignited hopes that a deal could be struck to help avoid sharp fiscal tightening which may hurt the global economy.

For the time being, the US fiscal cliff issue seems to be the dominant theme with a lot of politicians and policy makers trying to broker a deal with the White House to avoid a crisis.

Even President Barack Obama went on to state on Wednesday that he hoped an agreement with Congress could be reached well before Christmas. Only time will tell how this one plays out.