Today China is the biggest global consumer of several primary commodities. Chinese demand has a significant impact on global commodity prices. As a result, the slowing Chinese economy has been the biggest reason for the drop in commodity prices. Prices of metals such as aluminium, copper and nickel have touched multi-year lows in recent times. But here is a recent development that could boost commodity prices. As per the Financial Times, State Reserves Bureau (SRB), the Chinese stockpiling agency has purchased base metals on the international market. This too, for the first time since metal prices crashed during the global financial crisis. It is worth noting that SRB is one of the most influential participants in the global metals market. Taking advantage of the lower prices, it recently purchased nickel and enquired about copper as well. Many are seeing this development as a bullish sign for commodity prices. But isn't it a bit too early to make such predictions? Overall, we believe that the years of heavy investment-driven gravity-defying growth rate are behind China. From here on, the dragon nation is expected to grow at a moderate pace driven by domestic consumption. But this transition may not be smooth. There are likely to be shocks and surprises from time to time. And this will keep commodity prices highly volatile. As such, investors should not read too much into such short term data.
Monday, June 3, 2013
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