We have already seen three successive rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. However, if one tries to read the signals sent by Mr. Subbarao, those who are hoping for a further rate cut this June are likely to be disappointed. This may seem an anti growth instance, but we believe he has a point. While inflation is off its peak, it has not sobered yet. With a highly uncertain environment, one can hardly bet on global commodity prices and their impact on inflation. The GDP growth rate has hit a decade low and domestic currency is under pressure. To make matters worse, India's current trade deficit remains high. With elections around the corner, we believe there is a limited room for fiscal reforms. Hence, we will not be surprised with an absence of rate cut, at least in the next review due this June.
Sunday, June 2, 2013
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