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Sunday, June 2, 2013

We have already seen three successive rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. However, if one tries to read the signals sent by Mr. Subbarao, those who are hoping for a further rate cut this June are likely to be disappointed. This may seem an anti growth instance, but we believe he has a point. While inflation is off its peak, it has not sobered yet. With a highly uncertain environment, one can hardly bet on global commodity prices and their impact on inflation. The GDP growth rate has hit a decade low and domestic currency is under pressure. To make matters worse, India's current trade deficit remains high. With elections around the corner, we believe there is a limited room for fiscal reforms. Hence, we will not be surprised with an absence of rate cut, at least in the next review due this June.

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