Debt is not really a bad thing. It is, in fact, a great catalyst for economic growth. But debt can prove to be a double-edged sword if not used with restraint. We have seen how excess leverage has not just killed many corporates but has even brought countries down on their knees. China's phenomenal growth would have been impossible without debt. But it seems that the dragon economy's growth model of debt-driven investments has run its course. The economy is now sitting on a mountain of debt coupled with slowing growth prospects. Over the last six years, China's overall debt levels have shot up by 95 percentage points to 244% of GDP in 2013. This is the highest in Asia. Its ability to service its debt has been deteriorating. These are indeed ominous signs. While the dragon economy has proved many 'China bears' wrong in the past, if they proved right even once, it would wreck havoc not only in China but the entire global economy.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
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