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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Risky assets favoured while Dollar down


ECB action expected for Spain and Italy, Yen holds firmer against the Dollar.
Earlier today the Euro held steady against the Dollar and its clear to me that it will still remain supported by continued hopes for further action by the European Central Bank (ECB). What I and many other traders are looking out for, is the ECB to lower the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain.
The Euro held steady at $1.2394, close to a one month high of $1.2444.
It's also clear to me that the Yen has risen following support from investors, who now favour riskier assets on hopes of some ECB action, so expect this to be the current trend in the near term.
The Dollar was earlier down 0.1% to 78.52 Yen and hovered near the top of a range between 78.80 and 77.90 Yen. It has been mostly within this range for the past two weeks.
A rise in U.S. Treasury yields has been a reason for the Dollar support as both the two year and ten year U.S. yields touched one month highs while investor appetite for risk has been improving.
Near term U.S. economic data releases are expected to be relatively light, so for the short term I think that we won't see much more by way of further rises in Treasury yields.
Another factor I see weighing on the Dollar in the near term, is the potential for fund repatriation by Japanese institutional investors.
This is so as the month of August typically sees a large amount of bond redemptions in U.S. Treasuries as well as coupon payments. Japanese investors holding on to Treasuries may well sell the Dollar to bring home some of the proceeds, so be prepared for that to bring the Dollar down further in the coming days.

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