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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

The coming 19th October would mark the third anniversary of the Eurozone crisis. The first question that comes to mind is: How far the Eurozone has come in dealing with the crisis? There is no clear answer. There is still extreme uncertainty about the future prospects of the region. The Eurozone bourses have been witnessing low trading volumes. Merger and acquisition has come to a grinding halt. And so have initial public offerings. This just shows investors have no clue where things are headed.

So what's really going on? An article in Financial Times has an apt answer. It says that Europe's 'muddle along' plan is going to prove dangerous. By now, the actions and reactions of Eurozone policymakers follow a characteristic pattern. At every turn of the crisis, there have been market sell-offs, policy reactions and short term relief. The article points out that this is then followed up by complacency, backtracking until the crisis re-intensifies again. The problem with this is that there is no definite direction. Investors are now seeking clarity. A positive outcome would be that the monetary union moves towards a stronger fiscal union. On the other extreme, there is a possibility of a broad debt restructuring or the breaking up of the Eurozone. Some believe that the euro break-up would not be catastrophic, but beneficial. It will allow for a fresh start. It remains to be seen if the logic appeals to the EU policymakers. Most likely, they will prefer 'mud dling along' till the crisis reaches its peak.

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