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Thursday, January 31, 2013

Jobs Report Sets Dollar Up For Decline

The greenback was near its weakest level in over a year to the Euro, and dropped as against the Yen, on news that the Fed will continue purchasing treasuries and mortgage bonds.

The Fed decided yesterday to keep purchasing securities at the rate of $85 billion a month and left unchanged its decision to hold its target interest rate near zero, for as long as unemployment remains above 6.5% and while inflation remains below 2.5%.

As a result, I foresee that this position will remain a Dollar-negative factor until we can see improvement in data.

That news may be a while off though, as data about U.S. applications for unemployment insurance payments, due out today, is forecast to show a rise by 21,000 to 351,000 for the week ended 26th January.

Most economists are forecasting that the jobless rate has held steady at 7.8% in January.

The Dollar earlier fetched $1.3579 per Euro, near its weakest level since November 2011, and was down by 0.1% to 90.97 Yen. The Euro was still at a strong level at 123.52 Yen.

The Yen had risen against most of it major counterparts after Asian stocks halted a two day advance.

What we are likely seeing is consolidation after recent gains in the Dollar-Yen.

Earlier today, Japan's Trade Ministry had said that industrial output had risen by 2.5% in December from November, when it had dropped by 1.4%.

This poses a challenge to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who is seeking to boost growth in an effort to end more than a decade of deflation.

While market perceptions on economic growth remain tepid and inflation expectations remain low, we could see the Yen continue to remain under pressure overall for some time to come.

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