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Monday, November 4, 2013

Is the fiscal deficit under control?

In the first half of the last year, India's fiscal deficit had reached about 66% of the full year target. This time around (in FY14), it's at a much higher figure of 76%. While this is definitely an area of concern, the silver lining is that the month on month (MoM) increase has been declining. In other words, the deficit has been increasing at a slower pace. As can be seen from the chart below, the MoM increase in the fiscal deficit number (as a percentage of the estimated budget) has been slowing at a gradual pace. 
India's FM has been seemingly confident on meeting the fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP, with the argument that the revenues are usually back ended. These hopes hinge on the improving tax collections as the economy picks up coupled with revenues from divestments. What must however be kept in mind is that that the fiscal deficit was targeted on expectation of a higher GDP growth rate. With the latter coming down as compared to what was anticipated at the start of the year, it is possible that the actual figure may be higher than anticipated (in percentage terms). Is this why the FM is forced to use his accounting gimmickry skills to make the situation seem better than it is? 


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