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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Dollar Falls After Obama Win Makes Way For Monetary Easing

The US Dollar fell against the Japanese Yen in Asia on wednesday as US President Barack Obama,beat out his challenger,Mitt Romney,in a close election race.

So what I'm noticing is a consensus amongst investors that U.S. Monetary policy will remain loose under Obama, and this translates to the Dollar being sold. Bear in mind though, that shorting of the Dollar might not last as long as many may project, as the U.S. still faces a monumental fiscal challenge. Unless congress acts, U.S. citizens face more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts due to be implemented in 2013.

Romney in his lead up to the election had stated that he disagrees with the Federal Reserve measures to stimulate the economy and that he intended to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the end of his term in January 2014

As we see lower U.S. yields on Treasuries and higher stock prices, the tendency will remain for the Dollar-Yen in particular to fall.

The Dollar earlier today was down by 0.4% to 80.07 Yen while the Euro was little changed at 102.99 Yen. The Australian Dollar rose 0.2% to $1.0454.

As for the Euro, demand remained sluggish ahead of Greece preparing for a vote on austerity measures which it needs in order to keep its bailout on track.

Greece's 300-seat Parliament will today debate 238 pages of austerity measures, which include the raising of the retirement age by two years to 67 and doing away with Christmas and holiday payments for pensioners.

Legislative approval is an initial necessary step and the first of the parliamentary votes required by Monday in order to unlock a 31 billion Euro ($40 billion) tranche of international aid.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras faces defections from his three-party coalition which has to convince European Union leaders that the Greek government is serious about remaining in the Euro and that it will implement reforms.

Besides Greek issues, demand for the Euro was also influenced ahead of data today that may could provide evidence that the region's debt crises is worsening in the region's core economies.

German industrial production is expected to have fallen for a second month probably in September, down 0.7% from August. Other data may show that Euro region retail sales dropped by 0.1% in September.

As the U.S has taken some limelight from the Euro recently, I expect that we could see a sell off in the Euro in the medium term as Europe's issues begin to take centre stage again.

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