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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Dismal numbers of IIP{Index for Industrial Production} suggest that the economy is still not out of the woods.

Theoretically the stock markets are considered to be the barometer of an economy. Considered a lead indicator, they are supposed to reflect the direction the economy is going to take in the coming times. Therefore when our very own BSE-Sensex breached the 20,000 mark in January 2013, everyone thought the economy is taking a turn for the better. But the recently released economic data seems to point to the contrary. Dismal numbers for the IIP (Index for Industrial Production) suggest that the economy is still not out of the woods. So why have the stock markets been heading upwards? Simple, it is because of the flood of cheap money that has invaded our markets. With developed economies printing money like there is no tomorrow, a large part of it has found its way into India. This has led pr ices of asset classes, particularly stocks, to run up in recent times. As a result, stock markets do not seem to be reflecting the true state of the economy. However, it must be remembered that this can only continue for a short period of time. In the long term, the relationship between earnings and stock prices has to hold. So either the economy would take a turn for the better. Or the stock markets would come crashing down.
 
 

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