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Friday, February 15, 2013

Yen climbs as market anticipates G-20 currency signals

The markets today are braced for yet more conflicting statements on currencies, as the Group of 20 (G-20) nation's finance chiefs start the Moscow summit today.

The G-20 claims to represent 90% of the global economy.

Russia holds the G-20 rotating presidency for 2013, and Russian Finance Minister declared on Thursday, that the G-20 should have more "specific" language opposing exchange-rate interference when it issues a statement after the two-day talks which end Saturday.

In his opinion, the G-20 countries have always held the stance that currency policy "should be based on market conditions."

The group meets amid a threat of a so called international currency war. This is deemed the case as countries are pushing for weaker exchange rates in order to make their exports more competitive, and as Japan throws it weight behind monetary stimulus.

I predict that the end result of the summit is likely to be disagreement, as it's doubtful that any unified view on foreign exchange will emerge. More likely, is that attention will focus on weak growth in some regions such as the Euro zone.

Earlier today, the Yen was firmer against the Euro and the Dollar.

The Yen has been supported by expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will, in the next few days, select Toshiro Muto as his nominee for BOJ governor.

Muto is viewed as less radical than most of the other possible nominees and has served as deputy BOJ governor from 2003 to 2008. He has downplayed what many lawmakers have advocated, that the central bank should purchase foreign bonds in order to keep the Yen in check.

All of the candidates are seen though as likely to continue easy monetary policy.

Japan's expansive policies have driven down the value of the Yen sharply and hence the expectation for sharp focus on this by the G-20 finance officials.

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