Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Yen Off 3 Year Low as Treasury Backs Japan Stimulus Plan

In the eyes of many traders today, the Dollar-Yen rate has unsurprisingly started to look overbought and the Yen rallied as investors bought back after a recent sharp selloff.
 
The Yen's 14 day relative strength index (RSI) per the Dollar was below the 30 level, a level that some traders regard as a signal that an asset has fallen too rapidly and could reverse course, and stood at 27 yesterday.

On Monday, the Japanese currency had dropped by the most in more than two weeks following a statement by Haruhiko Kuroda, a potential contender for Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor, that additional monetary stimulus might be justified for 2013.

Speculation is also rife that some statements will emanate from the upcoming G-20 meet in Moscow on Friday and Saturday, that will criticize the rapid pace of the Yen's depreciation.

In fact, a Group-of-Seven nations may release a statement on exchange rates this week in an effort to quell concerns that the world is on the brink of a currency war. They could release the statement before the G-20 meeting.

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary had announced yesterday that she supports Japan's efforts to end deflation and "reinvigorate growth." She added though, that it's vital that any structural reforms should accompany macro economic policies when striving to achieve these goals. G-20 nations should heed the call to "refrain from competitive devaluation."

Japan's Finance Minister,  said yesterday that Japan will tell G-20 officials that it intends to maintain efforts to beat deflation.

The Yen had risen 0.3% to 94.06 per Dollar and gained 0.4% to 125.92 per Euro. The Euro slipped 0.2% to $1.3387 ahead of the release of gross domestic product data for the currency bloc by the European Union's statistics office on Thursday.

Most analysts expect that Euro region GDP has fallen by around 0.4% in the fourth quarter and should there be any negative surprises, this could see the Euro weighed down in the short term at least.