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Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Dollar Down Versus Majors Ahead Of Jobs Data

The Dollar has fallen for two days running against most of its 16 major peers, ahead of a private U.S. jobs report which is expected to show that U.S. companies have added positions.
 
The Dollar Index (DXY), which Intercontinental Exchange Inc. uses to track the Dollar against currencies of six U.S. trading partners, had fallen 0.1% to 81.971

What we are seeing is that the Dollar is being sold in risk-on trade as earlier the Dow Average rose to a record high, aided by speculation that central banks will continue stimulus, and after Treasuries were sold.

The market is now keenly awaiting the next jobs report.

The U.S. Labor Department is set to release its payrolls data on Friday and a report due out today from the ADP Research Institute, will likely show that U.S. companies have taken on more workers, in the region of 170,000 positions, in February after adding the most jobs in almost a year in January.

The Dollar lost 0.1% to $1.3062 per Euro and weakened 0.1% to 93.18 Yen from Tuesday.

The Euro was little changed against the Yen at 121.70 for a third session, ahead of ECB President Mario Draghi and his board meeting tomorrow.
 
I expect that the ECB will keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% this week, though a few factors come into play.

The European Commission sees inflation at 1.8% for 2013 and at 1.5% in 2014 also, the Euro region's gross domestic product has likely fallen 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012 from the previous quarter.

Furthermore, the Euro has appreciated since the ECB's last economic forecast in December, which in turn could weigh on the ECB's outlook for inflation.

This could result in the market looking to price in more ECB policy easing and that, I expect, will put pressure on the Euro in the days ahead as anticipation builds for the ECB to update its December economic forecasts.

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