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Monday, March 18, 2013

The entire market is keenly looking forward to March 19, 2013. After all, it is the due date for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy review - the first one post Union budget. So RBI's review this time will be a good pointer where our economy might be headed. Further, it will indicate if Finance Minister and RBI see eye to eye on matters of growth and inflation. While the broad consensus or rather hope is on a rate cut, the economic signals look conflicting. A bounce back in manufacturing output suggests odds in favour of a rate cut. However, if latest data on inflation is anything to go by, the outcome might be different. Both WPI and CPI have inched up thus making task tougher for central bank. While FM's commitment to bring down the fiscal deficit may make RBI cut rates, we believe it will take more to sustain growth. The latter will need reform initiatives and effective implementation to boost economy in the long run.

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