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Wednesday, March 13, 2013

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit 14,300 mark recently the US stock markets completed a four year bull cycle. Over the last four years the markets have returned approximately 129%. This makes the current period rally as the sixth best ever bull run in the US stock market history. Sustenance of the rally for such a long period of time and scaling new highs in between suggests that the US market is in a structural bull run.

But doesn't the current investing environment seem paradoxical to this fact? Despite such strong returns, equity as an asset class is still viewed with suspicion. Most investors are circumspect about investing in equities at the moment. And that's because they know that the current rally is fuelled by artificially loose monetary policy followed by Federal Reserve. It is true that corporate profits have increased and unemployment rate has declined over the four year period. But it is the federal intervention which is a key trigger driving the markets right now. And once the intervention ends markets would lose steam. Thus, the current bull run is situation specific. So, while it may find a place to be sixth largest one in terms of returns score card it lacks broad investor participation. As such, it may well rank right at the bottom, if assessed on a sentimental score card.   

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